The 2011 Grantham flood stands as one of Australia’s most catastrophic flood events in recent history which resulted in 12 fatalities. While various predictive methods have been applied to estimate potential loss of life from this event, the software LifeSim, an agent-based model increasingly used in Australia and internationally, had never been calibrated to an Australian disaster until now. LifeSim simulates population redistribution during an evacuation to estimate potential fatalities from catastrophic flooding.
In 2025, HARC undertook an assessment to calibrate LifeSim to the 2011 Grantham floods, assessing its suitability for use in the Australian floodplain context. The modelled LifeSim results showed a good match with the actual number of fatalities in Grantham and reinforces the suitability of LifeSim for use in assessing life safety risk due to flooding in an Australian context. It also provided valuable insights which lead to improvements in the state of practice of LifeSim applications not only in Queensland but elsewhere.
The outcomes of the calibration were instrumental in developing the LifeSim Parameter Selection Guideline for the Queensland Government.
